Test assumptions
A plan can look robust while resting on two unverified sentences. Argumont extracts those sentences, classifies them, and keeps them inspectable.
learn
Write the other world before you bet this one
A counterfactual is an alternate world: if churn did not fall, if the vendor missed the SLA, if the hire left in a year. You score that world too.
What it means
Causal inference uses the word technically. Decision work can use it more loosely: write the other story and see if the ranking survives.
Why it matters
Plans that only work if everything goes right are not plans. They are hopes with a timeline.
How to apply it
For each key assumption, write the false version and re-score. If the winner dies, the decision is fragile, and the record should say so.
A common trap
Listing catastrophes without changing scores. Drama is not analysis.
How Argumont uses this
A serious alternative should not be a rename of the preferred plan. If the ranking depends on one assumption, that belongs in the verdict.
Related pages
Pre-mortem
A pre-mortem asks the team to imagine it is a year later and the project is a disaster, then to write that history before you commit.
Risk-adjusted decisions
Finance uses risk-adjusted return. Operators can use the same idea without a lecture: what is the downside, how likely, and who eats it.
Risk management
A risk register lists worries. A decision chooses a treatment. Argumont compares mitigation, transfer, acceptance, and avoidance with residual risk left visible...
Learn
These articles explain methods Argumont uses in the product. They are education, not a pile of keyword stubs, and not fake news with invented dates.
Test the other world
Argumont challenges assumptions, researches evidence, compares competing approaches, and identifies the strongest decision.
Test the other world