PRODUCT GUIDE~2 min read
Frame your decision
A useful question tells the room what you are choosing, what matters to you, and which details are still unknown.
Getting startedRead guideARGUMONT LEARN
Learn how stronger decisions survive scrutiny.
Find a practical guide or explore a decision concept. Start with the four product guides if you are new to Argumont.
Learn library
47 guides and articles
PRODUCT GUIDE~3 min read
Use the Decision Room
How to follow competing arguments, step in at the right moment with the right fact, and read the result once the room has finished.
Decision RoomRead guidePRODUCT GUIDE~2 min read
Review evidence and uncertainty
Use the evidence and uncertainty shown in your decision to understand what is established, what is assumed, and what needs checking.
EvidenceRead guidePRODUCT GUIDE~2 min read
Use your Decision Passport
The Decision Passport brings the question, analysis, evidence, and recorded human decisions into one record you can inspect and export.
Decision recordsRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Adversarial reasoning
Adversarial reasoning assigns someone to argue against a plan on purpose. How to run it, who should do it, and how to score what the attack finds.
Decision RoomRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
AI debate
AI debate sets AI systems to argue opposite sides so a person can judge. When it helps a decision, how to run one well, and what to keep afterwards.
Decision RoomRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
AI decision support
AI decision support helps a person decide without deciding for them. What good support does, the levels of automation, and where authority should stay.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
AI without deskilling
AI can dull a team's judgment when it hands over answers with no work shown. Support that shows its evidence and lets you challenge it does the opposite.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Argument evaluation
How to evaluate an argument: separate the claim, the grounds, and the warrant, then test each. A method drawn from Toulmin, with a worked example.
EvidenceRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Assumption testing
Assumption testing lists what must be true for a plan to work, ranks those beliefs by what is at stake, and tests the riskiest first. Method and example.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Confidence vs probability
A probability forecasts how often something happens. Confidence describes how strong the record is. Learn why mixing the two leads to bad bets.
Risk and uncertaintyRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Counterfactuals
Counterfactual analysis asks what would have happened otherwise, and what if a key assumption were false. How to set a fair baseline and test a fragile plan.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Decision analysis
Decision analysis structures a choice under uncertainty with trees, expected value, and sensitivity. The method, a worked example, and the usual mistake.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Audit trail
A decision audit trail records what was decided, by whom, on what evidence, and what changed later. What to keep, how to keep it, and what to leave out.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Decision bias
Decision bias is a predictable tilt in judgment. The few biases that distort business choices most, a worked example, and the habits that counter them.
Risk and uncertaintyRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Decision calibration
Calibration is whether the confidence you state matches how often you are right. How to measure it with a Brier score, and how to improve it over time.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Decision confidence
Decision confidence should describe how strong the evidence is, not how much the room likes the answer. How to judge it, state it, and keep it honest.
Risk and uncertaintyRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Decision criteria
Decision criteria are the measures you judge options by. How to choose them, separate requirements from preferences, and weight them honestly.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Decision Hinges
A decision hinge is the one fact or assumption that would reverse the choice if it changed. Learn how to find it and why it deserves your next hour.
Risk and uncertaintyRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Decision intelligence
Decision intelligence treats a choice as something to design, test, and review: the options, the evidence, the weights, and what happened after.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~10 min read
Decision intelligence for banking
Explore how Argumont helps banking teams compare vendors, assess technology investments, challenge assumptions, and preserve committee decisions in a Passport.
Industry applicationsRead guideARTICLE~10 min read
Decision intelligence for insurance
How carriers, MGAs, and brokers compare core systems and vendors and preserve committee decisions, without touching underwriting, claims, or actuarial work.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Decision matrix
How to build a weighted decision matrix: choosing criteria, setting weights, scoring options, and checking whether the winner survives a change in weights.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Outcomes
A decision outcome is what actually happened after the choice. How to record it fairly, judge the decision apart from the result, and learn from both.
Decision recordsRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Decision owner
A Decision Owner is the one person accountable for the final choice. Learn why naming them early matters and how ownership differs from input.
Decision recordsRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Decision provenance
Decision provenance is the trail from each claim to its source and its effect on the outcome. Learn what a good trail holds and why it matters later.
Decision recordsRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Decision scoring
Decision scoring turns judgments into numbers you can compare. How to anchor a scale, score evidence rather than impressions, and avoid false precision.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Enterprise infrastructure
Enterprise decision infrastructure is the threshold, decision rights, common frame, evidence standard, and record that keep an organization's choices.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Evidence-based decisions
Evidence-based decision making grades each claim by how well it is supported before acting. A practical method, a worked example, and the usual mistake.
EvidenceRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Evidence quality
Evidence is strong when it bears directly on the claim, comes from someone in a position to know, and could have come out the other way. How to tell.
EvidenceRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Expected value
Expected value weighs each outcome by its likelihood. Learn how to use it on business choices, where it misleads, and how to keep invented odds honest.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Reduce groupthink
Groupthink is structural, not a willpower problem. Reduce it by having each option argued from opposing mandates before your team ever meets.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Uncover blind spots
A blind spot is what nobody in the room is placed to see. Uncover it by making each viewpoint argue on evidence before anyone decides.
Risk and uncertaintyRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Human-AI governance
How to divide a decision between software analysis and human judgment: when AI may decide, when it should advise, and how people keep authority.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Institutional Decision memory
Institutional decision memory is what an organization keeps so the next team knows why a choice was made, what lost, and what actually happened.
Decision recordsRead guideARTICLE~4 min read
Insurance core system and vendor decisions
Core, policy, and claims platform choices carry heavy migration and lock-in. How a carrier weighs replace, renew, and stage with conversion risk in the score.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Multi-agent AI
Several AI systems working one problem can catch more errors than one, but only when their views are independent and their claims are checked.
Decision RoomRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Opportunity cost
Opportunity cost is the value of the best option you give up. Learn how to name a real alternative, price it, and keep it in view when you choose.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Pre-mortem
A pre-mortem imagines a plan has already failed and asks why. How to run one in under an hour, turn its stories into tests, and act on what it finds.
Risk and uncertaintyRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Preserving dissent
Preserving dissent means keeping the losing argument and the objections on the record. Learn why it matters and how to do it without stalling a choice.
Decision recordsRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Red teaming
Red teaming assigns someone to make a plan fail before reality does. Learn where it began, how to run one, and why the red team must be free to win.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Reversible vs irreversible
Some choices can be undone in a week, others bind you for years. Learn how to tell them apart, price the way back, and match care to the stakes.
Risk and uncertaintyRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Risk-adjusted decisions
Risk-adjusted decisions weigh each option's reward against how likely and how badly it could go wrong. A method, a worked example, and the usual trap.
Risk and uncertaintyRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis tests a choice against a few sharply different futures. Learn how to pick the right ones, read the signals, and act before you know.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~3 min read
Secure Full-Cycle
What Secure Full-Cycle Decision Intelligence means: a decision carried from question to result, with claims, authority, and history protected throughout.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~5 min read
Superintelligence
Superintelligence promises one mind that outthinks everyone. Decision intelligence puts each claim on trial. Why a room of reviewers beats one smart model.
Getting startedRead guideARTICLE~2 min read
Weighted scoring
How weighted scoring works, why weights belong on paper before any option is scored, and how to find the one weight that would flip the winner.
Getting startedRead guideNo matching guides
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Learn at your own pace
Use the product guides for practical steps. Decision concepts cover evidence, risk, uncertainty, and Adversarial Analysis.
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