Expected value
Multiplying a made-up probability by a made-up payoff does not create a fact. It creates a formatted guess.
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A few worlds, not an encyclopedia of maybe
Useful scenarios change the score. Decorative scenarios give everyone a speaking part and leave the preferred option untouched.
How to apply it
Pick two or three worlds that would actually change capital or timing. Score options in each. Write what would tell you which world you are in.
How Argumont uses this
Risks, reversal conditions, and alternative options are the operational form of scenarios.
Related pages
Pre-mortem
A pre-mortem asks the team to imagine it is a year later and the project is a disaster, then to write that history before you commit.
Risk management
A risk register lists worries. A decision chooses a treatment. Argumont compares mitigation, transfer, acceptance, and avoidance with residual risk left visible...
How it works
Argumont turns a decision into a sequence you can inspect. Each stage leaves a record: options, claims, evidence, risks, scores, a verdict, and later an outcome...
Learn
These articles explain methods Argumont uses in the product. They are a standing library on scoring, confidence, evidence, and related methods.
Name the worlds that matter
Argumont challenges assumptions, researches evidence, compares competing approaches, and produces an inspectable verdict. You keep the final decision.
Name the worlds that matter