Questions
Should we enter, wait, or enter by a different door?
Enter a new market when you can show buyers there who will pay, a cost of serving them that you have actually priced, and a home business that can spare the attention. When any of the three is missing, the better answer is usually a lighter way in, or a wait with a named trigger, rather than a full entry.
Four questions before any plan
First, is there demand you can reach? The size of a market says nothing about whether its buyers will find you, trust you, or pay you. Inbound sign-ups, a few closed deals, or customers at home who also operate there are evidence; a large number on a slide is a description of the category.
Second, what does serving that market cost? Language, local contracts and invoicing, data and employment rules, support across time zones, and travel all land on the bill. Third, how long until revenue arrives, using the real sales cycle there rather than the hoped-for one. Fourth, what does the home market lose while your best people look abroad?
Doors of different weight
Entry is a ladder of commitments rather than one decision. You can sell from home with remote calls and local payment options, sign a reseller who already has the buyers, place one local hire, or open a full office with its own legal entity. Each rung costs more and is harder to walk back.
The sound rule is to take the lightest door that can test your weakest assumption. A reseller tests demand cheaply but keeps a share of every sale and some of the customer relationship. A local team gives you control, yet commits salaries, leases, and notice periods before demand is proven.
A worked example
A software firm with $6 million in yearly revenue weighs Germany. Last year 40 German companies started trials and 6 bought, a conversion of 15 percent against 20 percent at home, and the average German deal is worth €15,000 a year.
A direct team of a country lead and two sellers costs about €450,000 a year, so it needs 30 new customers a year simply to pay for itself. At 15 percent conversion that means 200 qualified trials, five times last year's flow, and nothing on the record yet shows where such a pipeline would come from.
A reseller would keep 30 percent of each sale, cost about €60,000 to sign and train, and could begin selling within a quarter. If it closes 12 deals in its first year, the case for a direct team rests on observed demand rather than hope. Waiting until German invoicing and support are ready is the third option, and its main cost is time.
Why waiting deserves a score
Teams often treat waiting as timidity, so it is never weighed at all. Yet waiting carries real costs, such as a rival settling in first, and real benefits, such as a finished product and a home market that keeps its focus. Score it against the same criteria, and write down the event that would end the wait.
How the room weighs an entry
Direct entry, a partner, and waiting each get their own Champion. Scout researches local substitutes and the public rules that govern selling there, while Diplomat maps who can say yes or no, from the partner's leadership to your own sales team at home.
Grandfather looks hardest at what is slow to undo, such as a local entity, a lease, or contracts with long notice periods, and asks for the cheapest way back. The Verdict says which door leads, the evidence beneath it, and the result that would justify the next rung. The Human Decision to commit belongs to your leadership.
Questions
- Do we need a local company before we sell there?
- Not always. Many firms sell across borders before registering locally, but tax, invoicing, and employment rules differ by country, so confirm your position with an adviser who works in that market before the first contract.
- How big should a first test be?
- Large enough to answer the weakest assumption and small enough to stop without damage. A fixed period, a budget, and a result written down in advance, such as a number of paid deals, keep the test honest.
- What if a competitor gets there first?
- Arriving second is costly in some markets and harmless in others. Ask what the first entrant actually locks up, such as long contracts or exclusive partners, rather than assuming speed wins on its own.
Further reading
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