Questions
Challenge the assumption that is doing the work
Every plan rests on assumptions, and most of them are harmless. A few carry the whole weight: if they are wrong, nothing else in the plan matters. Challenging your assumptions well means finding those few and testing them before you commit, while it is still cheap to be wrong.
Write them down in full
Assumptions hide inside confident sentences. The phrase customers will love the new pricing contains at least three: that customers will notice the change, that they will prefer it, and that enough of them will stay. Rewrite each plan statement until every assumption inside it stands alone.
Then mark each one by what it controls. Some decide whether the plan works at all. Others only change how well it works. The first group is where your attention belongs.
Name what would prove each one wrong
For every load bearing assumption, write the observation that would show it false. If you assume a buyer pays within 60 days, the disproof is an invoice still unpaid at day 90. If you cannot describe any observation that would prove an assumption wrong, you do not yet understand what you are betting on.
This step changes the conversation. Instead of arguing whether an assumption feels right, the team agrees on what evidence would settle it.
Test the cheapest one first
Rank the load bearing assumptions by how much they matter and how cheaply they can be tested. A phone call to three potential buyers, a one week price test on a single page, or a request for a supplier's past delivery records can each settle a question that would otherwise ride on hope.
Be wary of tests designed to pass. Asking friendly customers whether they like an idea is a test with only one possible result. A good test could have failed.
Assumptions under pressure in a Decision Room
In Argumont, the Challenger attacks the weakest reasoning in the case for the leading option, which is usually where the soft assumption lives. The Scout looks in public sources for facts that confirm or contradict it, and the Inspector marks each assumption supported, partly supported, unverified or contradicted. The Contrarian attacks whatever the room has started to agree on too easily. The Verdict names what it rests on, so the Human Decision is made knowing which assumptions are still untested.
One assumption spending the quarter
A distributor plans to add a new product line on the assumption that its existing retail customers will place first orders within 60 days, worth at least $250,000. Everything else in the plan follows from that number: the warehouse space, two new sales hires, the $80,000 opening inventory. Before committing, the sales director calls eight of the largest customers. Three commit to orders, two say not this year, and three want samples first. The assumption is now partly supported, and the plan shrinks to a smaller opening order with one hire until the samples convert.
Questions
- How do I spot assumptions I cannot see?
- Ask someone outside the plan to read it and list everything it takes for granted. People inside a plan stop noticing its foundations, while an outsider sees them at once.
- What if testing an assumption is expensive?
- Then weigh the cost of the test against the cost of being wrong. Sometimes the right answer is to proceed with a smaller first step that tests the assumption as part of the work.
- Is it possible to challenge too much?
- Yes, if every minor point gets the same scrutiny. Focus on the assumptions that would change the decision, and accept the rest as reasonable risk.
Bring Argumont a Decision worth challenging.
Start with a paid 60 day pilot on your own real Decisions.