Investors
A thesis is a stack of predictions. Argumont is a way to see which pieces are assumptions, which are supported, and what would reverse the call. It is not a buy...
decision
Capital allocation should be falsifiable
Investment decisions are easy to decorate with models. Argumont compares the proposed use of money with doing nothing, delaying, or a different instrument, and keeps unsupported assumptions visible.
Argumont provides structured analysis. It is not financial, legal, or investment advice.
What this decision type is
This includes raising, spending a reserve, acquiring, or placing a strategic bet. 'The model says 32% IRR' is a prediction sitting on assumptions. Those assumptions are the decision.
Argumont is not investment advice and does not replace a licensed adviser, fund process, or board duty.
Common mistakes
Anchoring on a single base case. If three plausible cases reverse the ranking, confidence should fall.
Another mistake is hiding the option to wait as if waiting were not a decision.
What evidence matters
Comparable transactions with dates, unit economics that have been observed, legal constraints, and liquidity needs. Pitch-deck traction should be checked against primary records.
Example criteria
Downside
What is lost if the thesis is wrong.
Time to cash
When money comes back, if it does.
Assumption load
How many unverified claims the case depends on.
Strategic fit
Whether this use of capital blocks a better one.
Reversibility
Whether you can exit without wrecking operations.
Common risks
Spreadsheet theater
Precision in the model conceals missing inputs.
Agency bias
The person proposing the investment is paid if it proceeds.
Example decision
Acquire a small competitor, invest the same cash in distribution, or hold twelve months of runway. Record what would change the ranking.
Related pages
Finance teams
Finance already knows that a model is a pile of assumptions. Argumont makes those assumptions first-class objects with types and verification status, then shows...
Risk-adjusted decisions
Finance uses risk-adjusted return. Operators can use the same idea without a lecture: what is the downside, how likely, and who eats it.
Defensible decisions
Defensible does not mean nobody disagrees. It means a later adult can see what you compared, what you knew, what you guessed, and what would have changed the ca...
Decisions
These pages are not a directory of keywords. Each one describes a kind of choice, the evidence it needs, how Argumont scores it, and where to go next.
Stress-test this investment thesis
Argumont challenges assumptions, researches evidence, compares competing approaches, and identifies the strongest decision.
Stress-test this investment thesis