Decision calibration
A well-calibrated decision maker who says 70% is right about seven times in ten, in that bucket. Most people are not well calibrated on novel bets.
role
Analysts need types on the claims
Good analysts already separate facts from forecasts. Argumont makes that separation a product surface: claim type, verification status, and score impact in one place.
Stop formatting estimates as facts
If a number is an estimate, it should look like one. Argumont will not silently promote user-provided figures to independently verified.
Calibration is later, honesty is now
Outcome tracking exists so forecasts can be compared with what happened. Do not invent calibration charts before you have outcomes.
Related pages
Claim analysis
Most strategy documents mix five kinds of statement. Argumont labels them so an assumption cannot survive as a fact because it was formatted in bold.
Decision scoring
A score says this option is stronger on this criterion, given this evidence. If you cannot show the evidence, the score is decoration.
For teams
These pages are for people with different incentives. A founder, a security lead, and a consultant do not need the same speech with the noun replaced.
Analyze this decision
Argumont challenges assumptions, researches evidence, compares competing approaches, and identifies the strongest decision.
Analyze this decision