Features
Break the memo into claims you can score
A decision memo reads as one smooth argument, but it is made of separate claims, and they are not equally strong. Some are checked facts, some are estimates, some are forecasts, and some are opinions written in a confident voice. Claim analysis pulls them apart so each one can be tested on its own.
Five kinds of statement
A practical way to read any memo is to sort its sentences. A fact can be checked now against a source, such as last year's revenue or a published tax rate. An estimate is a judgment about something that exists but has not been measured, like the size of a market. A prediction concerns the future, an assumption is a belief the argument depends on without defending, and an opinion is a preference that may be wise but cannot be verified.
Each kind needs a different test. Facts need a source, estimates a method, predictions a base rate, assumptions a name, and opinions an honest label.
Find the load-bearing claims
Not every claim matters equally. Ask of each one: if this were false, would the recommendation change? Most memos rest on two or three such claims. They deserve nearly all of the checking, and they are where a confident tone most often stands in for evidence.
How the room handles claims
In a Decision Room, what the Champions and the Challenger argue is treated as a set of claims, not as conclusions. Scout investigates those a public source can settle. Inspector reads what the evidence actually proves and marks each claim supported, partly supported, unverified, or contradicted. A figure you supply about your own business stands on your word, which is a different standing from a figure an outside source confirms.
The Judge sees which claims each score depends on, and the Verdict says what the leading option rests on. When a load-bearing claim is unverified, the confidence shows it.
Common mistakes it catches
Citation is not verification: a memo can cite a source that says something narrower than the claim. A number repeated across three slides gains authority without gaining evidence. A forecast is often written in the past tense of a fact. Each is a claim whose standing has been quietly raised, and naming the standing is the remedy, so the Human Decision is made with every claim in plain view.
One paragraph, five claims
A memo reads: 'Our competitor raised prices 15 percent last year. Customers are frustrated with them. The market will grow 20 percent next year. We can win 5 percent of it within twelve months. We should launch in March.' The first is a fact a public price list can settle, and Scout checks it. The second is an estimate with no stated method. The third is a prediction that needs a base rate. The fourth is the load-bearing assumption, and nothing in the memo supports it. The fifth is the recommendation itself. Inspector marks the price rise supported, the frustration partly supported by public reviews, and the 5 percent share unverified, so the Verdict's confidence stays limited until that share has evidence behind it.
Questions
- Do I need to label my claims myself?
- No. Bring the memo or the question as you would explain it to a colleague. The room separates the claims and sets out the standing of each.
- What does unverified mean?
- That no source in the record confirms the claim yet. It may still be true, but the Verdict should not lean on it as though it were settled.
- Can an option lead with a contradicted claim?
- Yes, if its other claims carry it. The Verdict then says which claim was contradicted and how much the ranking depended on it.
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