Decision Library
The cheapest quote is a claim about a landed cost
A supply chain decision commits a season to a factory, a route and a country before a single piece exists. The quote compares prices at the factory gate. The business pays for goods cleared, landed and on the shelf by a date, and the duty line, the ocean leg and the deposit can reorder three factories that looked settled. A Decision Room compares sourcing options on that fuller arithmetic and says plainly which figure is still missing.
The decisions a supply chain asks
Which factory takes the order. Whether to move production nearer to the market or keep it where the unit price is lowest. Whether to split an order across two countries so one tariff change cannot stop a season. Whether to pay a higher deposit for a shorter build. Whether to book sea freight with a thin cushion or air freight part of the order and give up margin for certainty.
Each is a choice among named options with dates and figures. 'Diversify our sourcing' is an objective. 'Place 6,000 pieces with the Porto factory for March, and 2,000 with Guatemala as a second source' is an option, because it can be costed, scheduled and proved wrong.
Landed cost, not factory price
Landed cost per piece is the factory price plus freight, insurance, the import duty on that product from that country, customs and brokerage, and the inventory you carry while the goods are on the water. The factory price is often between two fifths and two thirds of the figure the business pays, and the duty line alone can be larger than the whole price gap between two quotes.
Duty is the figure most often left out. It depends on the exact product classification, the country of origin, and any trade agreement or additional tariff in force on the day of entry. A rate taken from memory, or entered as zero, is not a figure. The room treats an unknown duty as a gap to be filled by a customs broker's written classification, never as nothing.
Lead time counts twice. A longer build and a longer sea leg push the delivery date toward the season's floor, and every week in transit is a week of inventory paid for and not yet sold. Carrying cost for a year is roughly the days of inventory times the daily cost of goods times the carrying rate; at a 22 percent rate, 75 days of stock on $10 million of goods costs about $450,000 a year, and 20 days costs about $120,000.
Evidence the decision rests on
The factory's quoted price, lead time and deposit, in writing. The forwarder's freight quote and transit time for the route and the month. The broker's classification of the product and the duty rate it carries from each country, with the agreement or tariff it relies on named. Published rules of origin where a preference applies. Your own delivery floor date and what a late season costs in markdowns and lost orders.
Figures you supply are kept as your own figures and never replaced. Public facts, such as a duty rate or a rule of origin, are found by the Scout and tied to the record that states them. A figure nobody has stays on the list of gaps, in the open, until someone supplies it.
How the room argues a sourcing choice
Each factory or route gets a Champion. The Challenger prices the cushion: how much the faster option really costs per week of slack it buys. The Red Teamer runs the quarter in which the duty is not what the worksheet assumed, the build slips two weeks, and the port adds ten days. The Gray Wolf hunts concentration, such as one country, one mill for the fabric, or one broker's reading of the classification. The Craftsman asks who owns the ship date and the decision to switch to air.
The engine works every sum from your figures: landed cost per piece and per order, deposits, the calendar from signing to the delivery floor. A sum that needs a figure nobody gave is not worked, and the Verdict says so. The Verdict names the leading option, the figure it depends on, and the two facts that would flip it, and your operations and finance leaders record the Human Decision.
What to weigh
Landed cost with duty
Factory price plus freight, insurance, duty, customs and brokerage, per piece and per order.
Calendar cushion
Weeks between the planned arrival and the delivery floor, after build, transit and clearance.
Cost of a late season
Markdowns, lost orders and air freight if the goods miss the date, times how likely the miss is.
Cash at risk
Deposit paid before goods exist, and what it takes to recover it if the factory fails.
Concentration
How much of the season depends on one country, one mill, one route or one classification.
Transition cost
Samples, qualification lots, audits and the learning lost when production moves.
Where it goes wrong
Duty entered as zero
A landed cost built without the duty line ranks the factories wrong before anyone argues.
Quoted time read as committed time
A lead time in a quote is a promise; the cushion is only real when the ship date is in writing with a remedy.
Origin paperwork
A preference rate depends on where the yarn and fabric were made, and the factory has not shown it.
One broker's reading
A single classification opinion stands between the plan and a reclassification at entry.
Three factories for a spring knitwear order
A brand places 6,000 pieces of cotton knitwear for a March 15 delivery, with the order signed November 10. Porto quotes $14.20 a piece with a seven week build, a 35 percent deposit and $1.10 freight by sea. Tiruppur quotes $11.60 with nine weeks, 30 percent down and $1.45 freight. Guatemala quotes $15.80 with five weeks, 50 percent down and $0.70 freight by truck and short sea. Before duty, Tiruppur lands at $13.05 and leads by $13,500 on the order; Porto lands at $15.30 and Guatemala at $16.50. The room does not stop there. The duty on cotton knitwear from each country is not in the question, so the landed costs with duty are left open and the three rates go to the Scout and to the broker. Guatemala's goods can enter duty free under the regional agreement only if the yarn and fabric qualify; India and Portugal pay the rate in force on the day of entry, and a rate in the mid teens, before any additional tariff, moves Tiruppur above $14.90 and Porto above $17.60. The calendar gives Tiruppur about nine weeks after its build and Porto about eleven. The Verdict names Tiruppur as the leading option on price, conditional on two things it does not yet have: the broker's written duty rate for India, and a ship date in writing that leaves three weeks before March 15. It names Porto as the fallback if either fails, and prices that fallback at about $2.25 a piece before duty.
Questions
- Can the room find the duty rate for us?
- The Scout searches for the published rate and the rules of origin and ties what it finds to the page that states it. The rate that applies to your goods depends on their classification, which your customs broker confirms in writing. Until a source or your broker states the rate, the room keeps it as an open gap and will not work a landed cost on a guess.
- What if we have no figures yet, only quotes?
- Bring the quotes. The room works what the quotes give, lists what they leave out, and the Verdict names the figures a decision still needs, usually the duty rate, the transit time for the month, and the factory's committed ship date.
- Does Argumont replace our sourcing team?
- No. The room is where the options are argued in the open and the sums are worked once, exactly. The people accountable for the order make the Human Decision, and the Decision Passport keeps the reasoning, the evidence and the gaps beside it.
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